The Look Off: Weeks 2-3
No one is healthy.
Welcome to Weeks 2-3 of The Look Off!
For FanDuel DFS players, be advised that the KC-Atlanta game tonight looks to be a potentially slate-breaking game. Consider it one of the “Obviously Attractive” games for the purpose of thinking through contests.
Through two weeks, offensive production has faltered and injuries to skill position players abound.
The Rams duo would be bad enough. But Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, CMC and Tua Tagovailoa are all unavailable this week.
Welcome to the new NFL. The days of hyperbolic offense are over.
The Tape - Looking Back to Last Week
Decreased scoring volume and injuries generate a lot of uncertainty—and uncertainty is a DFS player’s friend. Week 2 was a good reminder that if scoring is down, the range of players who can have a meaningful impact on the slate is larger. While the storyline heading out of the week is Alvin Kamara’s beatdown of the Dallas defense, names like Sam Darnold and Mike Gesicki ended up becoming critical pieces despite neither putting up 30+ points.
Additionally, Week 2 featured only a couple instances of total domination (Arizona and New Orleans classed the field in terms of not allowing their opponents oxygen). The season-long version of this statistic indicates there’s about six teams that are consistently able to push through game script considerations to keep putting up points—Arizona, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Washington, and Philadelphia. In future weeks, these teams are likely to feature in the “Obviously Attractive” bucket of games DFS players target for stacking. They’ve got something important going for them: they’ve demonstrated they’re comfortable chasing points.
Here’s the summary statistics from this past week. Note Washington’s surprisingly productive day, impressive despite coming against a weakish NYG squad.1
Game Buckets
For an explanation of how these buckets work, take a look back at this prior article.
Hoping for Variance
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (Total: 38—Early Slate)
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (Total: 43.5—Early Slate)
Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (Total: 40—Late Slate)
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (Total: 39.5—Early Slate)
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (Total: 35.5—Early Slate)
Tournament Edge
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Total: 40.5—Early Slate)
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (Total: 41.5—Late Slate)
San Francisco 49rs at Los Angeles Rams (Total: 43.5—Late Slate)
Obviously Attractive
Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (Total: 46—Early Slate)
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (Total: 48—Late Slate)
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans (Total: 49.5—Early Slate)
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (Total: 51.5—Late Slate)
Hoping for Variance
Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans: Props to the Packers for executing on what feels like their only viable approach to winning last week. It’s hard to see how we’re not in for more of the same in Week 3. Neither QB appears to be able to generate consistent offense, so both teams will be looking to grind out a gritty win by keeping the ball out of their signal callers’ hands. Despite needing to put points on the board, Aaron Rodgers logged more attempts than Will Levis last week.
It’s not all dark from a DFS perspective, however. Josh Jacobs gets an attractive matchup against a Titans unit that’s ceded a positive average EPA against the run. When the week wraps up, it wouldn’t be too surprising if Jacobs leads all running backs in touches. On the other side of the ball, Tony Pollard has earned an extremely high number of opportunities through two weeks—43 by my reckoning, on the ground and through the air. That volume is attractive considering the Packers have struggled with the two elite backs they’ve faced so far. He earned a premier role in Dallas for a reason, and the league might get reminded of that fact this week.
Still though. No stacks here. This iteration of Will Levis is the kind of guy who’d attempt to lateral after he broke the plane.
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts: Both of these franchises are rocking with very shaky quarterbacks. Both have a lot of long-term potential, but as far as this week goes, their offenses are good for flyers and avoidable otherwise.
The running backs are interesting tournament plays from an ownership perspective. Jonathan Taylor hasn’t gotten a ton of time with the ball through two weeks, but he’s a way to get different from the other big names at the position. And he looks like he’ll get a favorable game script against the offensively struggling Bears. D'Andre Swift is a fun way to target a Colts unit that got gashed—he hasn’t shown any real fantasy upside so far this year, but the Colts haven’t shown they can stop the run. He’s an extremely interesting flyer. Through the air, receivers Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell for the Colts are getting deeper targets and consequently have the ability to dramatically overperform their salary.
But to be clear—no one in this game is likely to have a slate-winning day. Hence, it’s in this bucket.
Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders: This game feels like it’s only playable from the Raiders side. Carolina is sieve, and the Raiders have some talented pass-catchers in Davante Adams and Brock Bowers. Bowers should be heavily owned now that George Kittle isn’t an option, but Adams could be a sneaky way to play an expensive wide receiver in a week that looks to be RB heavy.
Raiders pieces are interesting for large field entries. As for Carolina, I think the play is to wait a week and see how this offense looks under Andy Dalton.
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns: Aside from target monster Malik Nabers, this game looks like a dud from a mile off. Both teams seem capable of playing sloggy games, and sloggy games do not fantasy wins produce.
I will note that as QB scoring flattens out, performances traditionally seen as “meh” have more value than ever. Bringing Daniel Jones ($5,300) along with Malik Nabers isn’t the craziest thing you could ever do. Especially if you want to pay up for two elite RBs and an elite receiver. And if you’re worried about a field of 100,000 plus entries, the less-popular plays make even more sense. But beyond that, or a similar Watson-Cooper dart, there’s not much point to targeting this game.
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers: These are not productive teams. J.K. Dobbins has some upside, but Pittsburgh’s strangled a couple of opponents already. There’s just better options at RB. Justin Fields might be a decent way to play a cheap QB—but why not go for Gardner Minshew at that point, and get some pass catchers you can roster? George Pickens is the center piece of the Steelers’ passing “attack”, but he needs to hit his ceiling to make the opportunity cost of $5,700 worth it. There’s just not enough solid options this week to spend up on to justify that weird price point.
This game has a hilariously low total. Play it to get different—nothing more.
Tournament Edge Games
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Denver doesn’t appear to have any real bite. The implied team total is small—14 points rounding up. This game is interesting because the Buccaneers have real weapons. And as they demonstrated against the Commanders, they’re not afraid to stay on the gas after they put a team down.
So if you’re playing this game, you’re playing it through Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. The pair are the pretty clear focal points for this offense. Give the edge to Godwin, who’s gotten more usage and more attractive YAC opportunities. Just keep in mind that the obviousness of the advantage draws ownership to Godwin. Evans is an excellent piece to get different with—he very well could be the one to snag the bomb shot from Baker Mayfield.
Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks: Skylar Thompson is the reason this game slots into this bucket. Without Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins likely don’t have the offensive capability to make Seattle work for the win. Miami’s implied total is around 16 points for a reason.
That said, all of the skill position tools—Tyreek Hill, De'Von Achane, and Jaylen Waddle—will be on the field. It’s possible that one or more of them is able to put a bit of pressure on the Seahawks. The Seahawks, for their part, will likely be able to put up points on this middle-of-the-road Miami defense. Whether or not it’s a tournament winning number of points depends on if and how many big plays the Miami skill players can manufacture.
As far as fantasy targets, De'Von Achane is playable if you don’t want to spend all the way up for Saquon Barkley or Alvin Kamara. The workload will likely be there, but I imagine Seattle will build their defensive formations around making Thompson beat them. He’s got as much floor as he’s ever had. Zach Charbonnet will probably be touchdown dependent, but is an option for salary relief.
San Francisco 49rs at Los Angeles Rams: This game has a lot of pieces that look like attractive one-offs. Targeting the Rams defense following its torching at the hands of Arizona looks like a solid approach. Jordan Mason is a lock for most rosters at his $6,200 price tag. And Brandon Aiyuk is the lone healthy elite among 49rs pass-catchers.
If more of San Francisco’s weapons were healthy, they’d probably be an easy stacking choice. But with so much uncertainty swirling around the offense, it’s tough to click on Brock Purdy. I think it’s worth the risk because the touches appear like they’ll concentrate very heavily through two talented players, and Purdy isn’t particularly pricey on DraftKings at $6,000. The only reason this game isn’t in the obviously attractive bucket is because there’s no evidence the Rams can push back and force the 49rs to not grind the clock out.
Obviously Attractive
Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings: This game’s a bit tough to parse, and I almost included it in the previous bucket. On the one hand, both teams are 2-0, in large part because of their ability to push the ball through the air. On the other hand … their raw totals are just not all that impressive. C.J. Stroud hasn’t looked bad. But they’re not eviscerating the competition. From a fantasy perspective, Collins has been the only consistent Texans receiving option. The Vikings performance last week is skewed by a heck of a deep shot to Justin Jefferson. If that pass is incomplete—Sam Darnold’s passing total is under 200 yards. And they only put up 16 points.
The game qualifies for this bucket because of the collective priors around Stroud and Minnesota’s ability to push back. These offenses have the tools to clear a collective 60 points, so they have to be considered as stacking options. Especially given that Tank Dell and the Minnesota receiving corps can provide salary relief and the Texans elites Stroud and Stefon Diggs are convenient ways to avoid heavy ownership.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys: Both teams were supposed to be better than this! And it’s actually that prior that informs this game’s inclusion in this bucket. Both teams have offensive tools, and both teams have been chopped up on defense (I’m counting 26 points as a thrashing when they come from the Raiders). So it seems likely that this game is a get-right spot for one of the two squads. The high-ish total suggests the same.
Dallas’s path to big points seems runs through CeeDee Lamb. Baltimore is a bit tougher to parse, as it feels like the tight-end duo of Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews haven’t yet settled into stable usage patterns. But Zay Flowers is getting the ball with very respectable frequency—it seems that he’ll be the Raven that benefits most if this game blows up. Stacking him with Lamar Jackson is tough on account of Jackson’s price and ability to run the score in himself. But at the very least, Flowers is a solid one-off mixed in with other stacks.
If you choose to play this game, just pick your preferred side, and hope you guessed right!
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: Like the Eagles-Saints below, this game speaks for itself. Detroit’s been the weaker side from a points-scoring perspective, but they may very well turn it around this week. All of the Lions pieces are playable, but David Montgomery stands out to as an interesting way to save at the RB position. At $6,100, he’s $700 cheaper than his counterpart Jahmyr Gibbs and is more or less matching him in opportunities. Gibbs has the greater upside on account of the passing work, but Montgomery could absolutely be the back to snag a couple of TDs.
As far as Arizona goes, James Connor might be the optimal way to play the home team. Obviously, Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. are the big name receiving options. But Connor gets a boatload of touches (43 on the year … the two pass-catchers have 26 combined), and it feels like a mistake to not view him as the driver of the offense. Kyler Murray is a poaching threat, but that threat hasn’t stopped Connor from having strong performances so far.
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans: This game is the most attractive game on the slate. A.J. Brown’s absence funnels the Eagles down to a couple of key offensive pieces and New Orleans seems willing to hang 40 anytime you let them.
These are two teams with high DR, offensive tools, and competent quarterbacking. It’s worth targeting. The pieces from this game (Chris Olave jumps out at me as still a bit underpriced) are all viable. In this game, the ability to stack a QB and RB and have it potentially hit is fascinating. A Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara pairing is more viable than an Jalen Hurts / Saquon Barkley combo, just on account of Hurts’ ability to poach TD’s inside the five. But I’ll probably experiment with both.
The Chalkboard
With the games bucketed and analyzed, this next section walks through how the entire slate might play out
The idea here is not to issue a definitive statement about what will happen. Rather, the goal is to identify the most likely sets of combined outcomes, and parsing out how DFS players can build lineups to take advantage of those outcomes. In other words, we’re taking to the chalkboard, and scratching out some attack plans.
This analysis focuses heavily on tournament play. For example, game stacking, a technique discussed below, is rarely optimal in head-to-head type games. Just be mindful that all the sample lineups below are lineups built to finish in the 95th percentile or higher. Anything worse than that—it could be the bottom of the barrel for all I care.
Scenario 1: Only 2 or 3 of the Big Games Hit
In this situation, the depression of offense continues and only a few squads blow through their implied total. In this case, the nuts lineup likely includes the big names from one or two of those squads, and has a couple of salary relief options from the other two buckets.
Playing this scenario requires picking one to two games and one to two sides from those games (you could play opposing sides if you like—Philly and New Orleans look like a good candidate for that approach). Which games and sides a player picks depends on the exact contest size and what the player’s projections indicate. But here’s a sample lineup to get you thinking:
Scenario 2: Everything Is Closer Than Expected
In this situation, the winning lineup successfully compiles the top values and pays up for two or three big name skill position players (running backs, if I had to guess). The high-price roster selections hit big, and the value plays all log positive ROI. This lineup will still have some correlation, but won’t look like a traditional stack. Here’s the sort of thing you might try if you're playing this scenario:
Scenario 3: One Big Game Laps the Field
If one game takes off and goes for 35+ a side, stacking that game will be the key to unlocking a win. Most likely, the nuts lineup will have the less expensive QB in the blowup match, loads of players from both sides, and one or two value plays from elsewhere. What those plays are depends on your preference / projection system. But it’s hard not to imagine that Jordan Mason isn’t one of those pieces.2
Chalkboard Quick Notes
Finding a couple of value plays is more critical now than in previous years as offensive output continues to decrease.
It’s unlikely all four big games going off.
Running backs are important in each scenario.
Despite the sample lineups—Jordan Mason is going to be everywhere this week.
Final Thoughts
This seems like a fairly conventional slate, with fairly conventional options.
It feels like that’ll be an oddity this year. Enjoy it while you can.
Happy watching!
All player data used in this article comes from nflfastr or Next Gen Stats.
Although here, clearly, I imagined it.