YellaWood 500 - Thoughts + Predictions
Here comes the chaos - again.
This week’s note is going to be a bit shorter due to scheduling issues (which’ll emerge next week as well). I considered not running this article at all. But as discussed last week, something is better than nothing. And NASCAR could always use some analytical love.
Luckily for all of us—there’s not too much DFS analysis needed this week. Superspeedways, from a DFS perspective, have a fairly simple dominant strategy—chase placement points. I’ve written about this elsewhere, and nothing’s really changed for this week.
So instead of walking through the race systematically, I’m going to do something a little different. I’m going to share my simulation model’s outputs, and identify a few interesting plays based on its predictions for top threes and top fifteens.
To start though, here’s the predictions for an outright win—find the top three and top fifteen charts below it.
Model Predictions
Brief Analysis
Justin Haley looks like a very strong play. Starting in 35th, he’s got a good chance to capture 20+ place differential points according to the model.
The model is very, very down on Chase Elliot. With his 11th place starting spot, that lack of confidence indicates he’s a real liability. Probably not a driver to be overweight on.
Despite the good chance he pops off, Austin Cindric’s front row starting position is too high to make him a portfolio mainstay. The price is low enough ($8,100) that he can still be a piece—just not a mainstay.
Chris Buescher appears to be the play of the slate, starting in 20th and with the 6th highest count of wins in 10,000 simulations.
Playoff Notes
Kyle Larson wouldn’t hate a good finish here. Unfortunately, the model doesn’t foresee him contending for a win. That dovetails with his previous history. All’s not lost for the No. 5, though. Neil Paine put it best:
… Larson is no restrictor-plate king, but Talladega poses a similar promise of reward or ruin to just about everybody there anyway.
Joey Logano just might lock himself into the round of eight. Calling a superspeedway race is a little like trying to pass Ross Chastain: not easy. But that doesn’t mean he and Paul Wolfe won’t be thinking about it.
Thanks for taking a look this week. Enjoy the race! And if you’re catching the NASCAR bug, you can give this summary of the first round of playoffs Austin Chen and I did in podcast form!