The Look Off: Weeks 8-9
Totals aside, don't forget about RBs.
So. High totals appear to be back for good.
It’s possible that resurging quarterback play (named Jayden Daniels) is driving lines back up, but I suspect that climbing totals have more to do with ineffectual defenses than anything else. QBs are still only rarely ripping off 300+ yard games. Jameis Winston had one of the best games of the year last week, but it pales in comparison to the Jameis of old. From a DFS perspective, hitting on RB still has heightened importance and third-string receivers still feel like thin plays.1
The Tape - Looking Back to Last Week
Philadelphia had a statement game and may be back as a top offense to target for DFS. Buffalo continues to look good—the Seattle performance is impressive even if the Seahawks weren’t at 100%2.
Miscues aside, Miami looked alright with Tua back under the helm.
We learned nothing new about Detroit. This year, we’ve seen they can crush bad teams an eke out wins against good ones.
Cleveland balled out. Regression is in order, but if something is clicking there, it’s worth remembering that the Amari Cooper trade opened up some targets for talented options.
San Francisco pulled a decent evening together and might be a DFS dark horse when CMC returns.
Here’s a look at the summary stats following last week’s action.
Game Buckets
Hoping for Variance
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (Total: 38.5—Early Slate)
Tournament Edge
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (Total: 45—Early Slate)
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (Total: 43.5—Early Slate)
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns (Total: 42.5—Early Slate)
Washington Commanders at New York Giants (Total: 44—Early Slate)
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars (45.5—Late Slate)
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (Total: 44.5—Late Slate)
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Total: 48—Late Slate)
Obviously Attractive
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (Total: 46—Early Slate)
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (Total: 51.5—Early Slate)
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (Total: 49.5—Early Slate)
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (Total: 47.5—Late Slate)
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (Total: 47—SNF)
Hoping for Variance
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (Total: 38.5—Early Slate): Calvin Ridley is the only reason to click on this game. The total is on the floor for a reason.
Tournament Edge
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (Total: 45—Early Slate): Both of these defenses have had their struggles and the Bengals have shown they’re capable of lighting up the scoreboard. I’m comfortable leaning into Ja'Marr Chase despite the fact he’ll be carrying the team on his back. Brock Bowers is the obvious piece from the other side. Is this game likely to be a top spot? No—but that’s why it’s in this bucket and not the following group.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (Total: 43.5—Early Slate): Carolina has given up massive games to essentially every team they’ve played. Consequently, Derek Carr becomes clickable in my mind. Chris Olave has had a series of let-down spots, and still isn’t particularly affordable at $6,100. But pairing him with Carr and hoping that the Panthers panther isn’t insane. Alvin Kamara, either as the stacking option with Carr or as part of a game stack, also feels playable.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns (Total: 42.5—Early Slate): This game has some real floor. If Jameis Winston ends up on the negative side of variance and the Chargers decide their satisfied gutting out a close win, the scoring could evaporate.
But on the other hand … Winston and Justin Herbert could easily log a heavyweight bout with abundant scoring. I’m comfortable jamming multiple pieces from this game into a large-field lineup.
Washington Commanders at New York Giants (Total: 44—Early Slate): The Commanders’ orbit is decaying and they’re falling back to earth. Jayden Daniels might be an option to get really different for large field tournaments and Malik Nabers / Wan'Dale Robinson continue to show up well on the expected fantasy points leaderboard. I don’t love the spot as both defenses have flashed some success in recent weeks, but it’s here if you want options from a mid-level total.
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars (45.5—Late Slate): This game is all about Philly potentially running up the score against a banged up Jags side. Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and Saquon Barkley can all be cycled into lineup portfolios. Stacking them very well could be the skeleton key—you just have to figure out the right combo.
No Jags for me this week.
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (Total: 44.5—Late Slate): Both these teams have whacked soft marks—and both teams have been the soft mark. That makes MHJ and Trey McBride viable ways to get different. Their prices keep them from being staples, I think. D.J. Moore is worth a look in large fields, but generally, there’s better options for the money (Drake London in a couple hundred more). Again—this spot’s here if you want options from a mid-level total.
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (Total: 46—Early Slate): This is another game that feels like it could fizzle out. Denver’s had a good run but it’s hard to see them taking the fight to the Ravens. Have the Ravens slipped up in the past? Sure—and that’s why this game has a mid-level total. But it’s possible the Ravens get up early and don’t keep their foot on the gas. Courtland Sutton has clocked excellent expected fantasy point numbers and feels like the week’s best bet for budget receiving option. Ravens pieces are fine as well—just expensive. Probably best left as deep field plays, with so many smash spots on the slate.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Total: 48—Late Slate): There’s too much uncertainty in this game for me to stick it in the top bucket. Both of these teams feel very different post-October. While I’m fine jamming in Cooper Kupp or Kenneth Walker III in larger fields, relying on this game is a hard sell. If you play it—play it as a game stack.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (Total: 47.5—Late Slate): Personally, the Lions strike me as pretenders (and the DR stat agrees). While a Jordan Love-less Packers probably won’t tell us too much either way—I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions flub. The issue is, there’s a good chance one Lion is a top value on the slate. Amon-Ra St. Brown (especially with No. 9 suspended), Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Kalif Raymond are all worth sprinkling in to the broader portfolio. From the Packers—take a shot on Josh Jacobs or a single receiver if you want to be spicy. Otherwise, stick to the Lions side of the ball.
Obviously Attractive
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (Total: 51.5—Early Slate): Big total. Bad defenses. fire up anyone you want—and notice Jake Ferguson’s ascent in the passing play expected points leaderboard. Just be mindful that both teams have whiffed in the scoring department on multiple occasions. Tyler Allgeier is an always-exciting option if you’re willing to stomach the three-point floor.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (Total: 49.5—Early Slate): While not as pronounced as other shaky spots, the floor on this game is there. Miami may not be fully back yet. However, their pieces—Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, and Jonnu Smith are all underpriced. A Dolphins game stack is a sneaky way to attack this week. On the other side, Josh Allen could be an interesting way to approach big fields. James Cook is outshone by other RB options (while not specified in the game note, Bijan Robinson is in an excellent spot and is priced only $200 more).
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (Total: 47—SNF): Remember—this game is FanDuel only. The Vikings with Sam Darnold could hang some absurd numbers on this flailing Colts defensive unit. Justin Jefferson is a strong play. Supporting cast member Jordan Addison is there for the convenient double stack. Game stacking’s an option as well. If you want bring-backs from the Colts, you’re forced to take dart throws with Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell. Mo Alie-Cox gets fled when Joe Flacco is under center. He’s a very viable cheap option.
The Chalkboard
With the games bucketed and analyzed, this next section walks through how the entire slate might play out
The idea here is not to issue a definitive statement about what will happen. Rather, the goal is to identify the most likely sets of combined outcomes, and parsing out how DFS players can build lineups to take advantage of those outcomes. In other words, we’re taking to the chalkboard, and scratching out some attack plans.
This analysis focuses heavily on tournament play. For example, game stacking, a technique discussed below, is rarely optimal in head-to-head type games. Just be mindful that all the sample lineups below are lineups built to finish in the 95th percentile or higher. Anything worse than that—it could be the bottom of the barrel for all I care.
Scenario 1: One of the Obviously Attractive Games Laps the Field
For this situation, a game stack of some variety is probably in order. The below sample works off the assumption that the Cowboys and Falcons blow up, but any of the three games could be the golden ticket:
Scenario 2: Multiple Tournament Edge Games Pop Off
This one’s tougher to play—DFS lineup builders will have to scrap and claw for value, and stacks could get diluted pretty quickly. Here’s a sample that uses the Eagles as a base and hunts for cheaper plays everywhere else:
Final Thoughts
This slate is an extremely difficult solve. Totals have climbed back up. The difference between the strongest plays and mid-level plays is thin. Low ownership percentages might just be the order of the day. The only issue is optimizers might very well decide the same thing.
Still—offensive football makes for a positive viewing experience for wider audience, which is never a bad thing! Happy Watching!
All stat-related data comes from nflfastr. All betting line information comes from Action Network.
It’s also possible, if we want to be faithful Bayesians, that the Seahawks just suck and we just haven’t gotten the evidence of that out on the table.